Division leaders square off in Cincinnati

Baseball Betting Lines

07/30/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of National League divisional front-runners get together for a potential playoff preview tonight when the Central-leading Cincinnati Reds host the East-leading Atlanta Braves in the first of three at Great American Ball Park.

The Reds hold a half-game edge on the St. Louis Cardinals in the Central after taking two of three games from Milwaukee in a series that ended with a 10-2 Reds win on Wednesday.

The Braves, meanwhile, are 2 1/2 games up on the streaking Philadelphia Phillies. Philadelphia has cut into the lead with an eight-game win streak while the Braves have dropped four of six, including a series finale to Washington Thursday.

Cincinnati sends emerging ace Johnny Cueto to the mound in the opener in search of fifth straight win and with a chance to equal his career high in victories. The third-year Dominican export improved to 10-2 on the season with eight innings of scoreless four-hit ball in a 7-0 defeat of Houston on July 24.

The triumph lowered his earned run average to 3.18 and marked his sixth straight unbeaten start since a 1-0 loss at Seattle on June 18. His opposition batting average this season - .247 - is 12 points below his career clip and 15 points better than the .262 average he allowed last season.

For the Braves, right-hander Kris Medlen makes his second straight start after a trip to the bullpen and seeks his first win since July 7. A 24-year-old Californian, Medlen tossed six innings and allowed five runs on eight hits while getting a no-decision in Atlanta's 10-5 win at Florida on July 24.

It was his first game-opening assignment after four straight trips from the bullpen, during which he allowed six hits and four runs across five innings between July 11 and 21.

The former 10th round draft pick - 2006 - is 4-1 in 15 road games this season with a 4.05 ERA in 53 1/3 innings.

He has never faced the Reds.

On Thursday, Ian Desmond and Adam Dunn each homered, as the Nationals edged the Braves, 5-3, in the rubber match of a three-game series.

Derek Lowe (10-9) took the loss after allowing four runs on five hits in five innings. Matt Diaz hit a two-run homer for the Braves.

On Wednesday, Brandon Phillips hit his fourth career grand slam while Joey Votto went 3-for-5 with a home run, powering the Reds to a 10-2 victory over Milwaukee.

Phillips, who had two hits, slugged his first grand slam since 2007. Miguel Cairo went 2-for-4 with a walk and two RBI for the Reds, who went 4-2 on their road trip.

Cincinnati scored its runs in bursts, plating five in the sixth and eighth innings. Rookie Travis Wood (1-1) benefited from the first surge, getting his first major league win after allowing two runs in five innings. He gave up five hits, walked one and struck out six.

Atlanta swept a two-game set from the Reds earlier in the year after the Reds won six of the nine matchups in 2009.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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